Publications by Year: 2017

Magar E, Trelles A, Altman M, McDonald MP. Components of partisan bias originating from single-member districts in multi-party systems: An application to Mexico. Political Geography [Internet]. 2017;57(1):1-12. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We extend the estimation of the components of partisan biasd, undue advantage conferred to some party in the conversion of votes into legislative seats to single-member district systems in the presence of multiple parties. Extant methods to estimate the contributions to partisan bias from malapportionment, boundary delimitations, and turnout are limited to two-party competition. In order to assess the spatial dimension of multi-party elections, we propose an empirical procedure combining three existing approaches: a separation method (Grofman et al. 1997), a multi-party estimation method (King 1990), and Monte Carlo simulations of national elections (Linzer, 2012). We apply the proposed method to the study of recent national lower chamber elections in Mexico. Analysis uncovers systematic turnout-based bias in favor of the former hegemonic ruling party that has been offset by district geography substantively helping one or both other major parties.